Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Luuk Jacobs

An agreement - or just more uncertainty for the months ahead

Recommended Posts

Luuk Jacobs
_104303729_f528ed09-843c-4c6f-9930-0c942
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now?

So a Brexit deal has been agreed or should we say has been drafted meeting both sides expectations? There are still some major hurdles to pass:

- first the cabinet ministers need to give it their blessing

- The meaningful vote in parliament

- Approval/ratification by the EU council (latest mid December)

- Ratification by UK parliament (end February latest)

- Final European Parliament plenary (mid March)

You could argue that with each of these hurdle taken the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with and agreement is higher, but equally one hurdle not taken could throw everything in jeopardy again: PM resigning or being ousted, new referendum, new elections, etc. 

Exiting or frustrating weeks/months ahead of us with no doubt difficulty in distinguishing noise from reality

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Eva Keogan

I think May will resign tonight - let's hope she doesn't whistle and sing like Cameron did 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Andy Milner

Well it seems the rest of the cabinet are dropping like flies! I think she'll hang-on until she's taken the deal to Parliament, but then all bets are off..

 

bbc_news_logo.png?cb=1
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Updates and reaction as Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest at the UK's Brexit deal.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Luuk Jacobs

https://lnkd.in/dNXEzg8

 

The summary of the agreement (so not the whole 585 pages). Now it is all waiting for the political haggling. At the moment it is all MAYhem, various tries to topple May and grilling in parliament. Will it all survive and get the needed approval or are we going down the route of new PM, new elections (read referendum) are just a Hard Brexit. Time is really running out ....... although that might just be necessary to get a decision one way or the other !

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Luuk Jacobs

A good week on from the draft Brexit agreement, it looks like the EU Council is going to approve the (non legally binding) framework for the negotiation of how the final deal might look like. This has caused reaction from on one side people saying we are heading to a Hard Brexit as this will never get UK parliament approval to we might have not a Brexit at all. The last based on the "Betfair" betting exchange reflecting a 35-40% chance of a second EU referendum in 2019 in which the question will be No Brexit or the Brexit proposed in the current Brexit agreement.

 

In an earlier discussion, someone mentioned that he thought the Brexit agreement would get through parliament (maybe with a second vote and very close to the latest deadline for it) as most PM would not want to be associated with a Hard Brexit and all mayhem that would cause and therefore would ultimately choose for the still painful but less reputation damaging vote for the Brexit agreement.

 

Clearly camps remain hugely divided and in my view it is anyones guess as to what the outcome might be

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Luuk Jacobs

So with all the discussion ongoing, it is difficult to keep track as to what the timelines are, so I thought that I would pull together an overview of it based on various articles in the media 

 

20181205 Brexit timelines P2.png

20181205 Brexit timelines P1.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Luuk Jacobs

Today, January 28, 2019, the outcome options remain the same, the road leading to it might however be different. I would say at the moment there is parliamentary deadlock. Tomorrow there will be a second vote on the agreement, but I personally think that it will still be a defeat, although possibly smaller than 2 weeks ago, for May. Where will it take the UK from there is a guess

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Andy Milner

An informative summary of the current mess:

 

0?e=1554336000&v=beta&t=GHjF8z695gmq3qH6
WWW.LINKEDIN.COM

Brexit is not going well. The government is about to embark on a fool’s errand to Brussels, it is running...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  
Luuk Jacobs

I attended yesterday a presentation of Lord Jonathan Hill in which he gave his views on what the next steps could be re. Brexit. I give here my summary of the presentation

 

What is likely to happen (after another vote next week, which will not conclude

  • no reopening of negotiations
  • Unlikely even small change

Will parliament look at other ways to avoid hard Brexit (which is currently the direction)

  • staying in customs union for goods (but not services)
  • Ruling out legally a hard Brexit (this means a bill through both houses)
  • Political system is more volatile than ever and has shown to be extremely flexible in such situation and is likely to go back to process ...... the mood in parliament and business would be the driver
  • Will not be sorted by March 29 therefore EU would grant extension (with election pressure in the back ground)
  • Unlikely a second referendum (unless after a general election)

On financial services industry

Britain has and had a huge influence on EU regulation. So with UK leaving who would take over? ..... German unlikely as it is not central to their economy. So will it be France ? Barnier is French and if he would be a senior position after EU election, France could be a likely contender.

Should the UK align itself with future Eu regulation of financial services, when after Brexit they are without direct influence or should they go their own way and use its technical expertise?

 

So in general no clear answers but only directive in its views. What is your view?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Share this  

Sign in to follow this  

Share this  
  • Related Content

    • AlgoMe
      By AlgoMe
      In December 2018 the Government published a white paper on the UK’s future skills-based immigration system, followed a day later by The Immigration and Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill. Once enacted, the Bill will end freedom of movement for EU nationals, set a new framework for migration based on skills not nationality and end preferential treatment for EU nationals.

      This webinar will help you to prepare for the changes in UK immigration rules being brought about by Brexit. We are partnering with Jurga McLuskey, who leads Deloitte’s UK and EMEA immigration practice. She is an eminent leader in the immigration space and has strong government relationships. She has appeared as an Immigration Expert in front of the Parliament Bill Committee to give evidence on the Immigration Bill and the White Paper.
       
      https://www.theinvestmentassociation.org/ia-training/webinars/webinar-details.html?wid=9914
       
    • Luuk Jacobs
      By Luuk Jacobs
      A guide to where we are with Brexit
      WWW.BBC.CO.UK Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now? So a Brexit deal has been agreed or should we say has been drafted meeting both sides expectations? There are still some major hurdles to pass:
      - first the cabinet ministers need to give it their blessing
      - The meaningful vote in parliament
      - Approval/ratification by the EU council (latest mid December)
      - Ratification by UK parliament (end February latest)
      - Final European Parliament plenary (mid March)
      You could argue that with each of these hurdle taken the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with and agreement is higher, but equally one hurdle not taken could throw everything in jeopardy again: PM resigning or being ousted, new referendum, new elections, etc. 
      Exiting or frustrating weeks/months ahead of us with no doubt difficulty in distinguishing noise from reality
    • Pierre-Yves Rahari
      By Pierre-Yves Rahari
      The FT reports today that the ESMA and the FCA have struck an agreement that would protect the delegation model (amongst other things ...) in case of no-deal Brexit on March 29th. Seemingly this agreement will substitute the much-discussed MoU's that have not materialised yet, so it is good news overall. This will bring some relief in the EU Asset managers Boardrooms ... The FT quotes a senior figure at the EFAMA: "Ensuring that delegation continues to be authorised as it is today is of paramount importance to asset managers," i.e. this move would allow EU Funds houses to continue delegating the management of £1.8T worth of assets to London-based portfolio managers in case of a hard-Brexit.
       
      Good news, or good news?
       
      Subscribe to read | Financial Times
      WWW.FT.COM  
       
    • Luuk Jacobs
      By Luuk Jacobs
      The EU settlement scheme will open fully by 30 March 2019. The test phase of the scheme has opened on the 21st of January to those who meet all the requirements to apply (5 years continuous residence in the UK, if not you will get "pre-settled status").
      I applied myself last week Tuesday and the process was overall straight forward and took about 25 minutes. I did have permanent residence status already so could use that registration to proof my plus 5 years residence in the UK. You will have to give your social security number as well which, without knowing the exact checks that are carried out, will likely enable the home office to verify your residence in the UK.
      To my pleasant surprise my application was turned around in 48 hours and I received by email, the confirmation of my settled status.
      I would be interested to hear the experience of others


    • Andy Milner
      By Andy Milner
      I thought it would be good to start a discussion thread on the actual impacts that the industry is feeling due to Brexit. As time goes on there is more and more quantitive analysis such as the below report from EY:
       
       
       
      https://www.ft.com/content/c9d2a2ca-1262-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e
       
      Keen to hear any positive news too..
×

We use cookies to give you the best possible experience. If you continue, we’ll assume you are happy with this. For further information, see our Privacy Policy.