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Luuk Jacobs

An agreement - or just more uncertainty for the months ahead

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Luuk Jacobs
_104303729_f528ed09-843c-4c6f-9930-0c942
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now?

So a Brexit deal has been agreed or should we say has been drafted meeting both sides expectations? There are still some major hurdles to pass:

- first the cabinet ministers need to give it their blessing

- The meaningful vote in parliament

- Approval/ratification by the EU council (latest mid December)

- Ratification by UK parliament (end February latest)

- Final European Parliament plenary (mid March)

You could argue that with each of these hurdle taken the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with and agreement is higher, but equally one hurdle not taken could throw everything in jeopardy again: PM resigning or being ousted, new referendum, new elections, etc. 

Exiting or frustrating weeks/months ahead of us with no doubt difficulty in distinguishing noise from reality

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Eva Keogan

I think May will resign tonight - let's hope she doesn't whistle and sing like Cameron did 

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Andy Milner

Well it seems the rest of the cabinet are dropping like flies! I think she'll hang-on until she's taken the deal to Parliament, but then all bets are off..

 

bbc_news_logo.png?cb=1
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Updates and reaction as Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest at the UK's Brexit deal.

 

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Luuk Jacobs

https://lnkd.in/dNXEzg8

 

The summary of the agreement (so not the whole 585 pages). Now it is all waiting for the political haggling. At the moment it is all MAYhem, various tries to topple May and grilling in parliament. Will it all survive and get the needed approval or are we going down the route of new PM, new elections (read referendum) are just a Hard Brexit. Time is really running out ....... although that might just be necessary to get a decision one way or the other !

 

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Luuk Jacobs

A good week on from the draft Brexit agreement, it looks like the EU Council is going to approve the (non legally binding) framework for the negotiation of how the final deal might look like. This has caused reaction from on one side people saying we are heading to a Hard Brexit as this will never get UK parliament approval to we might have not a Brexit at all. The last based on the "Betfair" betting exchange reflecting a 35-40% chance of a second EU referendum in 2019 in which the question will be No Brexit or the Brexit proposed in the current Brexit agreement.

 

In an earlier discussion, someone mentioned that he thought the Brexit agreement would get through parliament (maybe with a second vote and very close to the latest deadline for it) as most PM would not want to be associated with a Hard Brexit and all mayhem that would cause and therefore would ultimately choose for the still painful but less reputation damaging vote for the Brexit agreement.

 

Clearly camps remain hugely divided and in my view it is anyones guess as to what the outcome might be

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Luuk Jacobs

So with all the discussion ongoing, it is difficult to keep track as to what the timelines are, so I thought that I would pull together an overview of it based on various articles in the media 

 

20181205 Brexit timelines P2.png

20181205 Brexit timelines P1.png

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