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Luuk Jacobs

Brexit preparation - time is running out

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Luuk Jacobs

Brexit has been the subject over the last 3 years that kept us writing or talking about over the dinner table and over a coffee. I personally have come to the stage in which I am quite indifferent about it, maybe sadly so. The subject has always been portrait as being black or white with over time some shades of grey in it. The reality however is much more complex and maybe even to complex to explain and understand. The article posted by @Andy Milner shows the next layer of complications if the next PM would go simply for a hard Brexit and as such maybe for many giving a feeling of bringing an end to the saga. However in my view it will be a short lived euphoria with the UK not being prepared for the next stage (highlighted by the recent news that the UK does not have the qualified negotiators for getting countries signed up to trade deals). What will it end up with? ..... You tell me, after 3 years I stop making predictions on outcomes.

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Jonathan Max

@Andy Milner; maybe its hopeful thinking but unless Boris has magic potion to give everyone amnesia; can there really be a viable option than another referendum (or General Election)?

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Andy Milner

Although Brexit fatigue has well and truly settled in, with the messages coming out of the current Tory leadership hustings I think it's good to touch again on what a no-deal Brexit would actually mean and how likely it now is.. Here are a few choice quotes from a short and snappy Economist article.

 

Quote

The risk of a no-deal Brexit under a new prime minister is greater than many think, and the consequences more serious. Any would-be Tory leader should acknowledge this. The worry is that many of them don’t even seem to realise it.

 

Quote

So far Brexit negotiations have come under Article 50, allowing a deal to be agreed by a majority of EU governments and approved only by the European Parliament. Once Britain is a third country, any negotiations would fall under a different provision, probably Article 218, which requires not just unanimous agreement but also ratification by all national and several regional parliaments. 

 

Quote

It would also be impossible to exploit the rules of the World Trade Organisation that can allow trade barriers to be avoided. The WTO’s non-discrimination provisions permit this only if both parties agree and are well on the way to forming a new customs union or free-trade deal, neither of which would be the case after a no-deal Brexit.

 

 

20190615_BRD001_0.jpg
WWW.ECONOMIST.COM

Hardliners say it would be fine, moderates say it could be stopped. Both may be in for a nasty surprise

 

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Caroline Sheldon

I agree, Brexit has become all absorbing not just in politics but for certain aspects of businesses as well. It certainly has now become a time waster, particularly in regards to 'deal' v 'no deal' and trying to anticipate as best one can what to do in either situation  It sounds like the original purpose of all these negotiations has been lost and  has now been replaced with political games instead.

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Luuk Jacobs

I am just looking at when we started this series of comments on Brexit, and back in July 2018 we already said that time was running out. Here we are, April 8 and at this stage we have another 4 days left to the current Brexit date without anything new on the table. Yes May is speaking to Corbyn and supposedly a custom union as an addition to the agreement would/could be suggested to the EU to get a further extension (is it going to be June 30 or is Macron pushing through a longer extension with certain conditions?). I start to wonder if all this is really going to change things for a deal that seems to be dead in the water with having been rejected 3 times so far. The public in general has enough of it and just wants to move on and a BBC article mentioning this morning that for MP's it has become mentally draining (sounds in my maybe not objective view a bit like a victim's reaction .....). Meanwhile no other policy is being discussed or put in place as Brexit is all absorbing; the cracks have started to show in society which seem to be waved away with promises of extra budget in the years to come.

 

It would be good to hear others opinion @Ben Cole@Andy Milner@Rob Carter@Dorianne Pruneau@Tarne Bevan@Caroline Sheldon

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